Wilson confidence interval for behavioral assumptions

4.0%
5,000
4.5%
Monitoring band (95% CI)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% CI bounds Observed Assumed
Lower bound
3.4%
Observed rate
4.0%
Upper bound
4.7%
Your assumption
4.5%
✓ Assumption is statistically consistent
Your 4.5% assumption falls within the 95% confidence interval. No action required; continue with current model.
How to interpret this

The shaded band shows the confidence interval around the observed rate. It captures sampling uncertainty.

Green: Assumption lies inside the interval — data-consistent. Keep using it.

Red: Assumption lies outside — statistically significant drift. Escalate for review and possible recalibration.